Jupiter Airdrop Round 2 (2025): Analysis, Discussion & Proposal for Distribution

[JUPWhale]

The author of this post is not part of the Jupiter team in any way.

This is a community proposal and discussion, and the criteria below are not final.

The final criteria will come from the team, and still have to be voted on by the DAO.

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Jupiter JUP Airdrop: Balanced Proposal for Jupuary 2025

To view the latest update, press on the Balanced Proposal for Jupuary 2025.

This is the most balanced and inclusive version of the proposal based on the feedback from 300+ comments. It gives more weight to especially Jupiter Perps and the DAO / JUP Stakers, alongside with 5 other changes.

@JUPWhale

This has really been a huge community effort. Alongside many of you, I spent around 100+ hours on data analysis, reading and replying to hundreds of posts and comments, discussing ideas and implementing feedback. I also read and replied to all other Jupuary topics. I want to thank especially the ones who continued arguing with me and providing new data and insight.

View the complete latest update here: Balanced Proposal for Jupuary 2025.

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Airdrop Distribution Proposal

Below you find our JUP Airdrop Distribution Proposal for Jupuary round 2.

It’s a balanced and community-refined distribution proposal which is inclusive and comprehensive, providing sufficient decentralisation and JUP distribution.

The team has been clear about the purpose. The purpose of Jupuary is:

1. Bringing another 2.1 Billion of the 10B JUP token supply into circulation
2. Distributing JUP to the millions of Jupiter users in a decentralised fashion
3. Incentivising (not rewarding) the community to engage more with Jupiter
4. Guerilla marketing method to create huge hype and (social)media attention
5. Aligning with Jupiter’s growth mindset and inclusive community strategy

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Community Allocations & New Jupiter Features | 250M JUP:

• DAO / Stakers: 70M JUP / 439M Staked JUP = 159 JUP per 1,000 Staked
  • 0.159 JUP per 1 staked JUP / 15.9% bonus on top of staked JUP. If possible using the average of different snapshots of round 2.
  • Even better would be to use the total accumulated voting power in order to determine the airdrop allocation, which takes in account consistency and vote frequency.
• Community contributors: 70M JUP = distributed at the team’s discretion
  • eg. Discord, Workgroups, Forums, POAP NFT, Promotors etc. based on level of contribution; with community submissions as in last round.
• New Token & Feature Users: 70M JUP: / est. 1,000,000 users = ~ 70 JUP
  • Any user who traded JUP, JLP, JupSOL and/or who used new Jupiter features like DCA, DVA, Ape, Perps. Specific distribution is up to the team.
• Perpetual Traders: 20M JUP = 176 JUP per $1M perp volume
  • Total volume of the user / 113.3B total perp volume (source) x 20M JUP.
• JLP Holders: 20M JUP / 235M JLP x 1000 = 85 JUP per 1000 JLP
  • If possible using the average of different snapshots of round 2.

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Adjusted Volume-Based allocations, with deduplication | 450M JUP:

• $10M+ tier¹: 40M JUP / 4,422 users = 9,045 JUP per user
• $1M - $10M tier: 70M JUP / 31,920 users = 2,193 JUP per user
• $100K - $1M tier: 100M JUP / 182,332 users = 548 JUP per user
• $10K - $100K tier: 100M JUP / 664,448 users = 150 JUP per user
• $1K - $10K tier: 100M JUP / 1,419,121 users = 70 JUP per user
• All $100+ users²: 40M JUP / 3,885,443 users = 10 JUP per user
• $0 - $100 wallets²: No Allocation / 11,361,557 users = 0 JUP per wallet

Total: 70M + 70M +70M +20M +20M (= 250M Community & New Features) + 40M +70M + 100M + 100 + 100 + 40M (= 450M Trading Volume Based) = 700M JUP.

¹ A new $10M+ tier is added to reflect the 9.5X volume growth of Jupiter in 1 year. The new tier properly rewards the top power users like traders, whales and KOL’s.

² $100 minimum volume requirement used to reduce the general user base from ~ 15.25 Million wallets to ~ 3.9 Million users. This effectively weeds out around ~ 11.36 Million low quality spam users / bots and airdrop farmers. No allocation for wallets with < $100 volume. Further deduplication may also need to be performed.

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Introduction

Several active JUP community members and large JUP holders have expressed concerns about large amounts of JUP tokens coming into the hands of users. Some worry about the 700M JUP coming into circulation and this amount being high relative to the 1.35B JUP currently in circulation.

This post aims to prove that a large 16X user increase combined with the 30% reduction in airdrop allocation, justifies the 700M JUP coming into circulation through JUP Airdrop round 2. There is a significant exponential reduction in the airdrop allocation per user, and an adjusted volume-based tier approach like round 1 is the logical distribution method.

This in-depth analysis aims to ease sell-off concerns and is supported by data and facts. The data shows the soundness and legitimacy of using adjusted trading volume tiers for JUP airdrops like established in airdrop round 1, and shows that we can proceed with the planned airdrop allocations and distribution method similar to the previous round, as initiated by Meow and the Jupiter team, with peace of mind.

This post is written by Solana token Developer ZandorOfficial who received data- and script writing support from partner Developer CrannySolana.

The author of this post is not part of the Jupiter team in any way. He is supportive of the team and of Meow, and support their approach to the JUP airdrops. The Jupiter team lead by Meow is best suited to make airdrop distribution decisions / proposals, because they are the most invested in the success of Jupiter and JUP, and because they have the most data and insight into the matter. The author’s goal is to give the community some more insight into the data, which supports JUP airdrops using an adjusted trading volume tier system.

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Data of the first user base for JUP Airdrop round 1

Meow wrote the Grow The Pie Update #1 on November 16, 2023, in which the total amount of wallets and trading volume were mentioned:

1. There will be 10B JUP Tokens.
2. As mentioned in our Breakpoint talk, this airdrop is to engage users who used us in the past, and invite them to be closely involved with the next phase of the Jupiter journey. Which means, the 955K wallets who interacted with Jupiter directly before Nov 2nd are eligible for consideration. There will be future rounds of airdrops for new users, so stay tuned for that.
3. This is obviously a massive number of wallets, and with 35B of volume, how to slice it up to make it meaningful was always going to be a challenge, but we are gonna try our best.
4. (…)
5. Also as mentioned, 40% [4B JUP] will be allocated to the community over 4 rounds of airdrops. 10% will be allocated in this round, which will be 1B tokens.

Source: [Archived] Grow The Pie Update #1, [Archived] Grow The Pie Update #1.

A few interesting points to note from this:

• 1 Billion JUP tokens were made available to 955,000 users who totalled $35 Billion in volume
• The circulating supply went from 0 JUP to 1,350,000,000 JUP (representing an infinite increase of the circulating supply) with 1,000,000,000 JUP allocated to the community airdrop
• The plan: allocate 40% of the supply to the community over 4 rounds of airdrops

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Meow further detailed the proposed distribution of the first 1 Billion JUP tokens:

With these in mind, we would like to present the airdrop breakdown for the first 10%.

• Even distribution for all wallets (2%)
• Tiered score based distribution, with score based on adjusted volume (7%)
• Community members on discord, twitter, developers (1%)

We believe this breakdown will reward power users and contributors significantly more, while likely giving everyone else a reason to come back and engage.

Every Jupiter user received 200 JUP regardless of volume in JUP Airdrop round 1.

The total amount was roughly 200 JUP times ~ 1,000,000 users = 200M JUP, which was 2% of the 1B airdrop allocation.

1% was distributed to active community members, and the majority of the airdrop (7% / 700M JUP) was distributed using logical volume-based tiers:

Based on the NON-ADJUSTED volume, we will be looking at approximately:

• Tier 1: Top 2K users, 100,000 tokens each (est >1M trading vol)
• Tier 2: Next 10K users, 20,000 tokens each (est > 100K trading vol)
• Tier 3: Next 50K users, 3000 tokens each (est > 10K trading vol)
• Tier 4: Next 150K users, 1000 tokens each (est >1K trading vol)

So for example; a user doing between $1,000 and $10,000 in trading volume received an additional 1000 JUP on top of their general 200 JUP allocation, totalling 1200 JUP.

Some community members expressed concerns about large allocations representing significant USD amounts, potentially fuelling sell-off pressure. These concerns have now come up again with Jupuary JUP Airdrop round 2 among some community members, who might have been unaware of the radical change in terms of user base and trading volume growth.

The adjusted volume-based airdrop amount was 700M. The airdropped JUP amount per tier can easily be determined by multiplying the allocation per user times the amount of users in that tier.

• Tier 1: Top 2K users, 100,000 tokens each (est >1M trading vol) [= 200M JUP]
• Tier 2: Next 10K users, 20,000 tokens each (est > 100K trading vol) [= 200M JUP]
• Tier 3: Next 50K users, 3000 tokens each (est > 10K trading vol) [= 150M JUP]
• Tier 4: Next 150K users, 1000 tokens each (est >1K trading vol) [= 150M JUP]

We will use this information later in our analysis to determine a potential airdrop distribution.

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Results and effects of JUP Airdrop round 1

Despite some minor limitations and various points of criticism, the airdrop seems to have worked very well and any airdrop sell pressure has been effortlessly absorbed.

• The Jupiter products and services have continued to evolve, improve and expand with new features and improvements driving user growth, engagement and JUP token value; this justifies the further distribution of the JUP supply according to the tokenomics
• JUP has amassed a $1.32B market cap (#56 on CoinMarketCap) with $160M trading volume (24h) as of Sat 26 Oct 2024
  • JUP has traded between roughly $0,50 and $1,75 with a median of around $1 per token
  • It is known that the total supply of JUP is 10B JUP, putting JUP already at around a $10 Billion market cap; the remaining JUP supply coming into circulation might already be priced in
• A strong JUP community has formed with 610,238 JUP stakers and voters on community proposals, countless of community discussions, workgroups and initiatives
• A solid foundation has been laid for further JUP token distribution and community growth through the announced remaining 3 rounds of airdrops

Given the positive results observed after JUP Airdrop round 1, we can confidently continue with the adjusted volume-based tiered airdrop distribution, as was done in the previous Jupuary round.

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Exponential Jupiter usage increase since November 2023

• The user count of unique traders on Jupiter has increased from ~ 955,000 users to over 15,247,000 users, which represents a user base increase of 16X
• The total Trading Volume has grown from 35 Billion to 333 Billion; a 9.5X increase

Source: Dune, Jupiter Aggregator (Solana) Dashboard by @ilemi url: https://dune.com/ilemi/jupiter-aggregator-solana.

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User Increase per Volume Tier

We performed further analysis on the exponential Jupiter usage increase in the last year. We wrote a basic script to pull the user counts for each airdrop tier. This helps us determine a potential airdrop allocation for each tier in round 2.

According to data from Dune, there has been a significant increase in users across all tiers:

• $10,000,000+ volume tier: 4,422 users (script source)

  • Previously ~ a few hundred users
  • This is a ~ 10X+ increase in users (new tier)

• $1M - $10M volume tier: 31,920 users (script source)

  • Previously ~ 2,000 users (Tier 1)
  • This is an 16X increase in users

• $100,000 - $1,000,000 volume tier: 182,332 users (script source)

  • Previously ~ 10,000 users (Tier 2)
  • This is an 18.23X increase in users

• $10,000 - $100,000 volume tier: 664,448 users (script source)

  • Previously ~ 50,000 users (Tier 3)
  • This is an 13.29X increase in users

• $1,000 - $10,000 volume tier: 1,419,121 users (script source)

  • Previously ~ 150,000 users (Tier 4)
  • This is an 8.87X increase in users

• All users ($100+ minimum): 3,885,443 users (script source)

  • Previously ~ 955,000 users (Tier 4)
  • This is an 4X increase in users if we set a $100+ minimum
  • The user increase is 16X if a $100+ minimum is not applied

These findings will help us determine theoretical allocations for round 2.

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Theoretical airdrop allocations per tier for Jupuary round 2

Based on the 30% decreased airdrop supply and the highly increased user counts we can determine theoretical allocations per tier for Jupuary round 2. The total airdrop amount is 700M JUP (30% less than the 1B of previous round due to the passed burn vote).

Using a similar structure as in round 1, the non-adjusted allocations per tier would be:

• All Jupiter users: 140M JUP (after 30% burn) / 15,247,000 users = 9 JUP per user
  • 9 JUP per user is 22X less per user than the 200 JUP of previous round
• $1M+ volume tier: 140M JUP (after 30% burn) / 36,166 users = 3,871 JUP per user
  • 3,871 JUP per user is 26X less per user than the 100,000 JUP of previous round
• $100K - $1M tier: 140M JUP (after 30% burn) / 182,332 users = 767 JUP per user
  • 767 JUP per user is 26X less per user than the 20,000 JUP of previous round
• $10K - $100K tier: 105M JUP (after 30% burn) / 664,448 users = 158 JUP per user
  • 158 JUP per user is 19X less per user than the 3,000 JUP of previous round
• $1K - $10K tier: 105M JUP (after 30% burn) / 1,419,121 users = 74 JUP per user
  • 74 JUP per user is 13X less per user than the 1,000 JUP of previous round
• Community contributors: 70M JUP (after 30% burn) = distributed at teams discretion

[ This is NOT the final proposal for the airdrop distribution. Scroll down to the end of the article for the final and fine-tuned proposed airdrop distribution, which includes valuable feedback from the replies of several community members. ]

The above data and calculations show the extreme increase in decentralisation we’re looking at for round 2, resulting in a very strong dilution of the number of tokens airdropped to each user.

Using a JUP price of $1 per JUP as example, let’s compare the theoretical $USD value of the airdrop per user of round 2 VS round 1 (after having considered the 9X - 18X user increase and the 30% airdrop supply decrease).

• Any user who traded on Jupiter would get a JUP airdrop worth $9 (instead of $200)
• A user who traded $1,000 - $10,000 would receive a JUP airdrop worth $74 (instead of $1,000)
• A user who traded $10,000 - $100,000 would receive a JUP airdrop worth $158 (instead of $3,000)
• A user who traded $100,000 - $1,000,000 would receive a JUP airdrop worth $767 (instead of $20,000
• A user who traded $1,000,000+ would receive a JUP airdrop worth $3,871 (instead of $100,000)

There could be some kind of additional deduplication process (removing spam wallets) in round 2, somewhat decreasing the user counts and increasing potential theoretical airdrop allocations, but the effect would be minimal considering the exponential 13X - 26X airdrop decrease per user.

Also using a volume-based tier system filters out many low volume spam wallets automatically. It costs money and effort to achieve organic high USD-value trading volume, which sort of functions as a build in spam-filer.

The potential zeroing of arbitrage volume would also have little effect on the allocations per user. The reason for this is that although there is $124.2 Billion arb volume on the pairs SOL-USDC, USDT-USDC and SOL-USDT alone (source) representing 37.3% of the 333B total volume, most of this volume is likely made by users doing millions of $USD in trading volume at the $1M+ tier 1. At the highest tier, more volume doesn’t further increase ones airdrop allocation as there is no higher tier to reach.

Scroll down to the end of the article for the fine-tuned airdrop allocation proposal, with feedback from several community members included.

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Conclusion

As mentioned, some active community members and major JUP holders expressed concerns about large amounts of JUP tokens coming into the hands of users, and about the 700M JUP coming into circulation being high relative to the 1.35B JUP currently in circulation.

The data shows the concerns unfounded. The very large 16X user increase combined with the 30% reduction in airdrop allocation, should easily absorb the 700M JUP coming into circulation through the Jupuary JUP Airdrop round 2, due to a significant exponential reduction in the airdrop allocation per user.

Meow has often stated that the airdrop is meant to be ‘‘easy to understand, inclusive and focussed on community growth’’. This is in line with an adjusted volume-based tier airdrop similar to the JUP Airdrop round 1. Looking at the data, we have established that it is feasible to continue the tier-based strategy, resulting in a much lower airdrop amount and Dollar-value amount allocated per user. Many alternative airdrop allocation suggestions are arbitrary, unfair and/or infeasible to implement.

The first round of Jupuary airdrops saw users getting rewarded with very high airdrop allocations of $200, $1200, $3200, $20,200 and even $100,200 per user (assuming an average price per JUP of $1). These airdrop amounts however have become impossible and will never be seen again in further Jupuary rounds (round 2, 3 and 4).

The total user count has grown exponentially by a factor of 16X for all wallets, and by a factor of 9X to 18X for the specific volume-based tiers. Together with a 30% decrease in airdrop allocation from 1 Billion to 700 Million, this would result in a 13X to 26X lesser allocation per user, preventing any ability to sell-off large amounts of tokens. The 9X - 16X user base increase ensures a much greater level of distribution and decentralisation.

An adjusted volume-based tiered distribution method as seen in round 1 makes most sense to stick with; it is most fair, most inclusive, most incentivising (to trade more) and most feasible to implement. The rewarding of trading volume with a tier system, rewards the more active users and automatically filters out millions of low value and low transaction volume spam wallets and 1-cent transaction count bots.

In the words of Meow himself:

‘‘We believe this breakdown will reward power users and contributors significantly more, while likely giving everyone else a reason to come back and engage’’

Jupiter has improved a lot in just one year; with a fine-tuned product, stronger team, introduced staking and voting, a stronger community and with JUP as one of the most established cryptocurrencies in the world ($1.32B volume and #56 on CoinMarketCap). The strength of the Jupiter platform, product, service, team and community and token offers many incentives for airdrop recipients to HODL their 13X - 26X lesser airdrop allocation.

Meow and the Jupiter team have our full support, and in our opinion deserve the full support of the community in sticking with the original plans as much as possible - especially in regards to the upcoming airdrop and distribution of 7% (700M) of the JUP supply in the Jupuary round 2 airdrop, using the same adjusted volume-based tiers. This method provides a balanced, decentralised and fair distribution that prioritises user engagement across the community.
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Addition on 27. Oct 2024 at 6PM EST

There have been several community members who commented suggesting an allocation, multiplier or bonus for users who have traded JUP, JLP, JupSOL and/or having used new Jupiter features like DCA, Perps, DAO Staking/Voting.

Assuming that it’s feasible and possible for the team to retrieve this data, I believe it would be beneficial to introduce a JUP bonus or allocation for users who traded JUP, JLP, JupSOL and/or having used new Jupiter features like DCA, Perps, DAO Staking/Voting. It’s a good idea which seems broadly supported by the community.

The tokens would have to come from somewhere though. The tokens could come from the 140M general non-tiered allocation. By reducing the general allocation by 50%, which is 70M, this amount could be used for rewarding users with bonus allocations if they traded JUP, JLP and/or having used DCA, Perps, Staking/Voting.

An added bonus allocation for New Feature Users could look like this:

• New Feature Users: 70M JUP: / est. ~ 1,000,000 users = ~ 70 JUP per user

New Feature Users are any user who traded JUP, JLP, JupSOL and/or who used new Jupiter features like DCA, Perps, DAO Staking/Voting. The exact amount of ‘New Feature Users’ is unknown, but considering at least 800,000 JUP holders and over 600,000 JUP DAO stakers / voters, we estimate it to be at least 1 Million users.
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Applying a $100+ volume-based spam filter

The ‘generic’ allocation per general user wouldn’t be affected much by a 70M JUP deduction, as long as a minimum volume requirement of $100 is implemented. In fact, the allocation per general user with $100+ volume would be even higher. The below filtering out of 11.3 Million low quality spam users / bots explains how.

Several community members have noted the importance of implementing measures against low quality spam users / bots and airdrop farmers. Applying a minimum volume requirement of $100 would make ~ 3.9M users (source) instead of 15.25M wallets. This effectively weeds out around ~ 11.3 Million low quality spam users / bots and airdrop farmers with less than $100 in total trading volume.

In this adjusted proposal only a core user base of ~ 3.9 Million Jupiter users (source) would receive an allocation, instead of the earlier mentioned total wallet count of ~ 15.25 Million. It would increase the allocation to legitimate users from 9 JUP to 18 JUP per user, despite using only 70M JUP instead of 140M JUP as the ‘all users’ allocation.

So instead of …

• All users: 140M JUP / 15,247,000 users = 9 JUP per user

… it would be:

• All $100+ users: 70M JUP / 3,885,443 users = 18 JUP per user

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Addition on 28. Oct 2024 at 6AM EST

Based on the feedback from community members in the comments, it might also be a good idea to add a new $10M+ volume tier, instead of only using a $1M+ tier. It would be logical to add a new 10X higher tier since the total trading volume has also increased 9X.

Adding a new $10M tier would effectively mean splitting up the 140M JUP airdrop allocation for highest tier in two new tiers of $1M+ and $10M+ volume power users, with a 100M JUP and 40M JUP allocation respectively.

For example 40M JUP would be allocated to the top 4,422 users (source) who traded over $10 Million in trading volume. The remaining 100M JUP would be going to the 31,920 users (source) who traded between $1M and $10M in volume.
This would result in the following airdrop allocations for power users:

• $10M+ volume tier: 40M JUP / 4,422 users = 9,045 JUP per user
• $1M - $10M volume tier: 100M JUP / 31,920 users = 3,133 JUP per user

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Addition on 28. Oct 2024 at 6PM EST

Several community members such as @miuq and @Crypto_Minion have pointed out the importance of an additional allocation to DAO / JUP Stakers.

There has also been a dedicated topic about it by @Ayn0n: Prioritizing Stakers: Heaviest Airdrop Rewards for DAO Contributors

Some heavy weight top 0,1% JUP whales / stakers are hoping for / suggesting a very large allocation, but I am instead proposing a more balanced and fair additional 70M JUP allocation for JUP stakers (in addition to the 215 Million unclaimed JUP from the last round which has been allocated to JUP stakers).

70,000,000 on 439,433,794 staked JUP would equal a 15.9% bonus for the year. That would mean one would get 0.159 JUP for every 1 JUP held or 159 JUP for every 1000 JUP held. A whale holding 1,000,000 (1 Million) JUP would hence get 159,000 JUP in airdropped ($162,180.00 of value at $1,02 per JUP).

That is, in addition to the 215 Million unclaimed JUP from the last round which has been allocated to the DAO / JUP stakers, and in addition to the general 70 Million New Feature Users allocation already included in my current proposal.

When removing 40M JUP from the $100K - $1M tier, and removing 30M JUP from the $1M - $10M tier, an additional 70 Million JUP would be freed up to reward the DAO / JUP stakers. This would result in the below final proposal:
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Addition on 29. Oct 2024 at 10AM EST

Having received many dozens of replies with community feedback, We’ve continued to update and improve the below proposal. The New Jupiter Features & Community Allocations have been expanded to 250M JUP (35% of the airdrop) to now include specific allocations for Perpetual Traders and Liquidity Providers (JLP holders).

The Adjusted Volume-Based allocations of 450M JUP with deduplication have been adjusted to allocate 30M JUP less (40M instead of 70M) to ‘‘All $100+ users’’ resulting in just 10 JUP per user. Also the $1K - $10K tier and the $10K - $100K tier have been reduced with a combined 10M JUP. Further clarification and specification has also been added in response to community feedback.

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Addition on 3. Nov 2024

The sub < $100 wallets consist mainly of wallets doing the below type of transactions on memecoins. These are bots performing $0,01 transactions from newly created wallets to increase the TX Count and Maker Count, in order to make the memecoin trending on DexScreener and similar platforms.

This provides a clear reason to exclude the 11,361,557 wallets with < $100 volume from any airdrop. These millions of bot wallets don’t merit (deserve) any allocation.

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Airdrop Distribution Proposal

Below you find our JUP Airdrop Distribution Proposal for Jupuary round 2.

It’s a balanced and community-refined distribution proposal which is inclusive and comprehensive, providing sufficient decentralisation and JUP distribution.
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Community Allocations & New Jupiter Features | 250M JUP:

• DAO / Stakers: 70M JUP / 439M Staked JUP = 159 JUP per 1,000 Staked
  • 0.159 JUP per 1 staked JUP / 15.9% bonus on top of staked JUP. If possible using the average of different snapshots of round 2.
  • • Even better would be to use the total accumulated voting power in order to determine the airdrop allocation, which takes in account consistency and vote frequency.
• Community contributors: 70M JUP = distributed at the team’s discretion
  • eg. Discord, Workgroups, Forums, POAP NFT, Promotors etc. based on level of contribution; with community submissions as in last round.
• New Token & Feature Users: 70M JUP: / est. 1,000,000 users = ~ 70 JUP
  • Any user who traded JUP, JLP, JupSOL and/or who used new Jupiter features like DCA, DVA, Ape, Perps. Specific distribution is up to the team.
• Perpetual Traders: 20M JUP = 176 JUP per $1M perp volume
  • Total volume of the user / 113.3B total perp volume (source) x 20M JUP.
• JLP Holders: 20M JUP / 235M JLP x 1000 = 85 JUP per 1000 JLP
  • If possible using the average of different snapshots of round 2.

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Adjusted Volume-Based allocations, with deduplication | 450M JUP:

• $10M+ tier¹: 40M JUP / 4,422 users = 9,045 JUP per user
• $1M - $10M tier: 70M JUP / 31,920 users = 2,193 JUP per user
• $100K - $1M tier: 100M JUP / 182,332 users = 548 JUP per user
• $10K - $100K tier: 100M JUP / 664,448 users = 150 JUP per user
• $1K - $10K tier: 100M JUP / 1,419,121 users = 70 JUP per user
• All $100+ users²: 40M JUP / 3,885,443 users = 10 JUP per user
• $0 - $100 wallets²: No Allocation / 11,361,557 users = 0 JUP per wallet

Total: 70M + 70M +70M +20M +20M (= 250M Community & New Features) + 40M +70M + 100M + 100 + 100 + 40M (= 450M Trading Volume Based) = 700M JUP ³.

¹ A new $10M+ tier is added to reflect the 9.5X volume growth of Jupiter in 1 year. The new tier properly rewards the top power users like traders, whales and KOL’s.

² $100 minimum volume requirement used to reduce the general user base from ~ 15.25 Million wallets to ~ 3.9 Million users. This effectively weeds out around ~ 11.36 Million low quality spam users / bots and airdrop farmers. No allocation for wallets with < $100 volume. Further deduplication may also need to be performed.

³ No cat should be left out. Expect nothing, be thankful for anything.

@meow @0xSoju @siong FYI

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View the complete latest update here: Balanced Proposal for Jupuary 2025.

[Bluebird]

Great analysis kudos, a lot of measures need to put in place in this next jupnuary event.

[The_Lacrymator]

Great analysis @JUPWhale, the analysis of the previous Jupuary drop to when compared to this one is an amazing comparison. I wasn’t here for the original Jupuary and have since become heavily invested and DCA further investing more when I can. When we consider who is more likely to hold, I believe will be those who have staked and are part of the DAO. Simply because locking up JUP will eventually cause the price to go up.

[lateef]

This is the most well analysis about Jupiter i have seen so far.

Looking forward to the drop

[Merlin-M-Ostermann]

Yeah this goes deep and I agree for the most part.

The thing with peoples having concerns is often that it is about correlation not causation, sort of.

This analysis goes deepr to exactly not make that mistake, I like it.

[D3vpurity]

In my opinion
This is great proposal
But I will not reward all users of JUP again.
From last JUPUARY over 215M JUP left unclaimed
If all users are reward again . Lot of JUP will will still be left unclaimed , even though we will still have lot of JUP unclaimed though the number will be much if all users are rewarded.

I will want the tier to start from $1k to $1M and above as you suggested , for nearly 3 years of Jupiter exchange in existence. Why won’t a single user have $1k trading volume and above ( if you truly use the product)

Also if I will be trying to reward everyone that use JUP
I will reward the JUP voters(and maybe stakers even though they don’t make use of there staked JUP, but they are also a user of JUP DAO product) alone for their commitment and not 15M users.

Like I use to say : THE TEAM KNOW THE BEST AND THEY WILL GIVE IT

[gogeta]

wow, this is really a great explanation.

thanks

[miuq]

Lots of effort put in to this and it’s good data. @JUPWhale what about if we don’t have another jupuary, what is the downside? The achievements you mentioned have been unlocked already and are not something what 2nd jupuary would unlock. Jupuary drives token distribution into more decentralized model but as long as the team holds major piece of the cake, it still remains highly centralized. It’s also the team who benefits the most from more users and traders. I know there is no fee on swap but some of the users will go use other products to get more money to the team. That’s a good thing but how does a JUP holder benefit from these users? Some of them will become die hard community members and some will just dump their airdrop but is it net positive or net negative? Does it matter in terms of sell pressure if the jupuary will be distributed to +10x more wallets compared to the previous one?

I’d love to see a similar post from you guys comparing 2 different options. Benefits of having another jupuary vs not having it.

I personally agree with many things in this post and kudos for seeing this much effort putting it together.

[Joy888]

Great analysis. It definitely gives us a lot to think about. Thank you for your big effort and these amazing insights.

[num17]

@JUPWhale

An adjusted volume-based tiered distribution method as seen in round 1 makes most sense to stick with; it is most fair, most inclusive, most incentivising (to trade more) and most feasible to implement

Disagree with this distribution method entirely, given the huge increase in wallets that have interacted with JUP the second airdrop should be delivered using a completely seperate metrics.

Volume is not the criteria for Jupuary 2, the ecosystem has evolved to introduce staking, voting and new features which should be the consideration for jupuary 2

[Effitius]

Repeating same criteria from first jupuary seems reductive, the ecosystem has grown and the distribution of the 2nd airdrop should reflect this growth.
New areas of ecosystem should be rewarded, swap volume is no longer the most important part of JUP. Governance is more important and should have rewards through Jupuary, so should some of the other features introduced this year along with communities like discord/twitter/forums/educaters etc .

Only see this benefiting whales who can easily push volume

[ad1000r]

This analysis goes deepr to exactly not make that mistake, I like it.

[JUPWhale]

Trading volume and user count / onboarding is and will always be the most important metric for any cryptocurrency exchange; centralised or decentralised. The volume tiers help identify which users are more valuable and contribute more to the trading volume. It would be irrational to remove an adjusted volume-based allocation all together.

I do think having a multiplier to adjust the volume of the user or an actual JUP bonus for having traded JUP, JLP and/or having used DCA, Perps, Staking/Voting makes sense and could be feasible and could reward a bonus for these new features.

The tokens would have to come from somewhere though. For example from the 1% / 70M community contributors allocation. Or for example 50% from the 140M general non-tiered allocation, which is 70M, could be used for rewarding users with bonus allocations if they traded JUP, JLP and/or having used DCA, Perps, Staking/Voting.

Governance is already rewarded with 215 Million JUP! Most of this is getting into the hands of whales, as there is no power user adjustment like in the JUP airdrop round 1. Someone with 4.3 Millions JUP voting for example, literally get’s a 1% share of the 215 Million allocated ASR rewards which is a 50% ROI. These rewards are already out of proportion compared to any smaller Jupiter participants.

Furthermore there remains a 1% (70 Million JUP) allocation for only a couple hundred active contributors like ourselves, which sets these contributors up for a royal JUP airdrop share.

The proposed distribution of the 2nd airdrop does reflect the ecosystem growth by including 9X - 18X more users per tier and 16X more users in general, by allocation 13X - 26X less JUP per airdropped user, by enhancing distribution / decentrilization, and by effectively mitigating sell-off concerns.

[JUPWhale]

@Effitius

Repeating same criteria from first jupuary seems reductive, the ecosystem has grown and the distribution of the 2nd airdrop should reflect this growth.

The proposed distribution of the 2nd airdrop does reflect the ecosystem growth by including 9X - 18X more users per tier and 16X more users in general, by allocation 13X - 26X less JUP per airdropped user, by enhancing distribution / decentrilization, and by effectively mitigating sell-off concerns.

Furthermore there remains a 1% (70 Million JUP) allocation for only a couple hundred active contributors like ourselves, which sets these contributors up for a royal JUP airdrop share.

@Effitius

New areas of ecosystem should be rewarded, swap volume is no longer the most important part of JUP. Governance is more important and should have rewards through Jupuary, so should some of the other features introduced this year along with communities like discord/twitter/forums/educaters etc .

Trading volume and user count / onboarding is and will always be the most important metric for any cryptocurrency exchange; centralised or decentralised. It would be irrational to remove an adjusted volume-based allocation all together. The opinion seems to be grounded in fears (which I showed are not needed) or in greed for more JUP.

I do think having a multiplier to adjust the volume of the user or an actual JUP bonus for having traded JUP, JLP and/or having used DCA, Perps, Staking/Voting makes sense and could be feasible and could reward a bonus for these new features.

The tokens would have to come from somewhere though. For example from the 1% / 70M community contributers allocation. Or for example 50% from the 140M general non-tiered allocation, which is 70M, could be used for rewarding users with bonus allocations if they traded JUP, JLP and/or having used DCA, Perps, Staking/Voting.

Governance is already rewarded with 215 Million JUP! Most of this is getting into the hands of whales, as there is no power user adjustment like in the JUP airdrop round 1. Someone with 4.3 Millions JUP voting for example, literally get’s a 1% share of the 215 Million allocated ASR rewards which is a 50% ROI. These rewards are already out of proportion compared to any smaller Jupiter participants.

The comments highlights a concerning issue IMO with the vocal JUP community; it represents a small part of the community (JUP whales, contributors and stakers) and a certain share of the community seems to be pushing their own agenda trying to highjack the plans of the team, instead of thinking about the long-term benefit of JUP and Jupiter and the many millions of Jupiter users making up the community as a whole.

@Effitius

Only see this benefiting whales who can easily push volume

Benefitting whales exponentially more than the general community, has never been part (and hopefully never will be part) of Jupiters goal of a growth oriented inclusive distribution and decentrilised network and token.

[WalterZan]

It left me very impressed¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡. They have done an excellent job breaking down each aspect, and the clarity with which they explain the steps using comparisons is to be applauded. It makes you feel like they are really listening to the community and prioritizing transparency. Although there were a couple of points that raised some concern, I think the approach is solid and leaves me with good confidence in the project. It’s nice to see this level of commitment!
A huge applause for the author of the article, this is truly admirable, I will not stop repeating it.

[JUPWhale]

@miuq

what about if we don’t have another jupuary, what is the downside? The achievements you mentioned have been unlocked already and are not something what 2nd jupuary would unlock.

• It has been clearly planned and communicated to have 4 rounds of Jupuary with JUP distribution of 40% of the supply (now already 30% less after the burn). It is very bad for the reputation of any serious project to deviate from long term plans in a big way, hurting the trust and reliability of the project in the eyes of stakeholders.
• Not having another Jupuary would greatly limit the progress of JUP to a single year of distribution instead of 4 years. We would fail to capitalise on the 9.5X volume growth and 16X user growth, converting this into more holders and traders for JUP and further cementing the JUP and Jupiter ecosystem. Any good project like Jupiter deserves to keep growing and scaling, and we can’t do that without it’s actual users.
• The achievements can become much greater as we scale further through following up on the plans and further advancing the JUP distribution and decentralisation. We can further increase the market cap, holder count, trading volume and CMC ranking.

@miuq

Jupuary drives token distribution into more decentralized model but as long as the team holds major piece of the cake, it still remains highly centralized. It’s also the team who benefits the most from more users and traders. I know there is no fee on swap but some of the users will go use other products to get more money to the team.

It is natural that the team benefits most from the users and traders, as they build the product and services of Jupiter. Jupiter functions like a business where the entrepreneurs who build it benefit financially alongside any investors just as is the case with a Centralised Exchange. This should not be confused with the team benefitting from JUP token allocation.

The team deciding to distribute 40% of the supply is very generous. They created a token which now has a FDV of ~ $10 Billion USD and decided to put up to 40% of it into the hands of the community. This move greatly helps decentralisation and we need at least 2 - 3 more rounds of Jupuary with JUP airdrop distributions to ensure a safe, fair and sustainable market introduction of the JUP supply.

Any JUP supply managed by the team is not meant for personal use by the current team. Out of the 3.2B out of 10B only 1.4B out of 10B (14%) is designated for ‘team’. Remember that ‘team’ here does not only mean the current team but also the future team. The team could be anticipating for example hiring up to 1,000+ full time engineers and employees in the future, which would require a budget of $100M+ USD per year.

Satoshi Nakamoto also holders an estimated 1 Million out of 21 Million Bitcoin, but most serious investors including the largest financial institutions of the world don’t seem too bothered by it. When you have a good and trustworthy team and founder, only a minority of people who find it hard to trust trustworthy leaders and teams may have issues with it.

The following analogy might not fully hold up, but to help us understand the idea, think about for example the stake Elon Musk has in Tesla, SpaceX or Twitter. Him having a large stake (percentage of the shares) is not a negative thing but a positive.

@miuq

That’s a good thing but how does a JUP holder benefit from these users? Some of them will become die hard community members and some will just dump their airdrop but is it net positive or net negative?

I am convinced that it is clearly net positive and moreover necessary to accomplish growth. If you look at the growth of any cryptocurrency ecosystem like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana etc or even looking at established memecoins like Wif, Bonk and Popcat, it has gone through similar cycles of volatility characterised by earlier holders selling and the supply being distributed to a greater number of smaller holders.

@miuq

Does it matter in terms of sell pressure if the jupuary will be distributed to +10x more wallets compared to the previous one?

Yes absolutely. Where someone who traded $1001 in the previous round received a $1200 airdrop, or someone who traded $100,001 in the previous round received a $100,200 airdrop, that represents a significant USD value to the receiver of the airdrop, providing a much greater incentive / temptation to sell (part) of the airdrop.

With a 13X - 26X reduced airdrop allocation per tier in round 2, these amounts amount to much less USD value which provides more incentive to HODL for a greater future value.

Also 700,000,000 JUP in the hands of 15,247,000 users poses much less risk compared to 1,000,000,000 JUP in the hands of 955,000 users. The greater the distribution and decentralisation, the lower the impact of individual airdrop recipients selling.

@miuq

I’d love to see a similar post from you guys comparing 2 different options. Benefits of having another jupuary vs not having it.

I believe I have provided ample commentary above on the upsides of having another Jupuary. I also have given my reactions to the perceived downsides posted by other community members.

Airdrops are a widely misunderstood and underrated distribution method for cryptocurrency projects. The Jupiter team has many examples like Uniswap, Ray, Bonk and many more to draw and learn from. In order to expand the reach and the influence of JUP and Jupiter it is necessary to continue with the planned growth-oriented airdrop rounds with a long-term horizon.

Onboarding users, customers and clients is always a strong priority of any successful business and cryptocurrency project. That’s what the teams of successful projects like Binance, Coinbase, Amazon, Facebook, Tesla, Twitter etc. understood.

Whereas certain businesses rely more on marketing and paid referrals to onboard users, Jupiter has the unique opportunity to onboard millions of users onto the Jupiter platform organically by having the best trading platform on Solana, and onto the JUP token through organising one of the largest token distributions in crypto history.

[JUPWhale]

Thanks @Bluebird! Yes I agree that some measures need to be put in place. I believe the team has all the internal data to make the right calls and set the right measures. It will remain important to keep the airdrop straight forward and simple to understand for the community as Meow has expressed.

The adjusted volume-based tiered method as we’ve seen in round 1 provides a fair, logical, inclusive and incentivising and easy to understand and implement distribution method. The 13X - 26X lesser airdrop allocation per user and the tiered distribution, inherently contain anti-sell-off and deduplication measures.

• Anti-Sell-Off Measures: I’m convinced that the 13X - 26X lesser airdrop allocation per user is sufficient to reduce sell-offs of any significance. Other suggested measures like auto-staking are arbitrary and don’t provide a real solution. Somehow limiting liquidity would also not be good for trust in JUP.

  I have seen a suggestion where one could claim a higher percentage of their airdrop allocation if they would stake their airdrop, and less if they claim the airdrop directly into their wallet. Although this is a smart idea, I believe it is unnecessary considering the much smaller airdrop allocations per user.

  In addition to that, there already are financial incentives for DAO participation through staking and voting, which can be further promoted during Jupuary. The 13X - 26X lesser airdrop allocations should easy any major sell-off fears.

• Deduplication measures: The team has a lot of data and insight and is in the best position to make good decisions in regard to deduplication measures

  Although the small theoretical allocation starting at 9 JUP per Jupiter user does significantly reduce the impact of spam bots, it will still be important to filter out obvious and large clusters of duplicate spam and bot activity.

  There are for example many memecoin developers who use $0,01 buy bots using many thousands of wallets to artificially boost the transaction count and maker counts. They do this to increase their changes of reaching trending status on different platforms like DexScreener. These wallets might be spotted and filtered out manually using blockchain data analysis.

  Alternatively the team could consider setting a minimum amount like $100 or even $10 trading volume per wallet instead of the all-inclusive floor of $0.

  Setting a $10+ or $100+ volume requirement would have the effect that legitimate small users get more than 9 JUP as an airdrop, whereas illegitimate spam wallets will be filtered out. In our data we find millions of wallets with less than $100 in trading volume.

  I do think it remains important to consider sub-$1000 volume users as there are many legitimate users in some countries in for example Africa, South America and Asia for whom $100+ or even $10+ is significant trading volume. The good thing is that a 9 JUP airdrop (or a bit more after deduplication) will also be a significant holding for these users relative to their trading volume.

Let me know if you had any other measures on your mind!

[Rajaphilose]

This is so detailed and very easy to understand. Thanks for sharing.

[JUPWhale]

Thanks for your reply and positive feedback @The_Lacrymator! Stakers and DAO participants might indeed be more likely to hold, although there are also many holders who don’t stake any of their tokens for various reasons.

According to DexScreener and Solscan, JUP already has amassed over 800,000 holders! This number could even be higher if you would include Centralised Exchanges holding on behalf of users.

Airdrop round 2 could potentially onboard millions of new JUP holders, if the airdrop remains inclusive and growth focussed as Meow has expressed he wants it to be.

Many of the new JUP holders from the airdrop could become potential stakers and DAO participants (starting with as little as staking their 9 JUP airdrop). The millions of JUP in allocated staking and voting rewards already provide ample incentive for participating in this. It might be worth to promote vote.jup.ag during Jupuary.

[JUPWhale]

Thank you Lateef! Feel free to let me know if you have any more questions or comments.