this is good napkin math but it completely leaves out any room for criteria speculation. do we really believe for a second this whole thing is just going to be 700m tokens divided by 15m wallets? would not be a good thing for stakers, jlp holders, jupsol holders, etc.
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Thank you @D3vpurity! I do understand your concern. I thought about unclaimed JUP, but since itâs unknown how much it will be this round, I left it out of my analysis. I do assume that less will be unclaimed, as most Jupiter users from last year will still be active on Solana and Jupiter and will know about the airdrop.
If unclaimed JUP were to be considered, it could further reduce the 700M JUP coming into circulation to only around 500M - 600M for example - further cementing the point that there is no need to be concerned about sell-offs and token inflation.
Minimum volume requirement of $10 or $100 or $1000 instead of $0
Alternatively the team could consider setting a minimum amount like $1000 or $100 or even just $10 trading volume per wallet instead of the all-inclusive floor of $0.
To answer your question: ââWhy wonât a single user have $1k trading volume and above ( if you truly use the product)ââ
I do think it remains important to consider sub-$1000 volume users as there are many legitimate users in some countries in for example Africa, South America and Asia for whom $100+ or even $10+ is significant trading volume. The good thing is that a 9 JUP airdrop (or a bit more after deduplication) will also be a significant holding for these users relative to their trading volume.
Filtering out spam bots with low transaction volume
Although small theoretical allocation starting at 9 JUP per Jupiter user does significantly reduce the impact of spam bots receiving airdrops, it will still be important to filter out obvious and large clusters of duplicate spam and bot activity.
There are for example many memecoin developers who use $0,01 buy bots using many thousands of wallets to artificially boost the transaction count and maker counts. They do this to increase their changes of reaching trending status on different platforms like DexScreener. These wallets might be spotted and filtered out manually using blockchain data analysis.
Setting a $10+ or $100+ or $1000+ volume requirement would have the effect that legitimate small users get more than 9 JUP as an airdrop, whereas illegitimate spam wallets will be filtered out. In the data our script still finds millions of wallets with less than $100 in trading volume. I agree that it might be good to filter these.
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Itâs a great analysis and good comparison with the current state of the Jup eco.
This is the exact reason i think that Meow and JUP team should not use same criteria as last time because it was a big boom and attracted attention from bad actors which supposedly think that the criteria will be same and trying to game the system.
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Good morning, and thank you for your detailed and well thought out post.
I appear to be the only one in this thread that doesnât really agree with the gist of your post however. It feels like there is some heavy bias in what youâre saying.
I personally donât see many people concerned about sell pressure from potential large airdrop amounts going to a smaller number of accounts - also this didnât really happen last time - JUPâs price has been very stable (which is a very promising sign) for almost the whole year, so I think this is somewhat of a ânothing burgerâ (no offenceâŚ).
I personally would not like to see JUP following your proposal of reducing airdrop amounts for the increase in users - because obviously since the airdrop people have come in to farm potential future drops. So your proposal of reducing the 100,000 JUP airdrop to ca. 4000JUP just plays into the hands of airdrop farmers.
Rather, I would prefer to see JUP maintain the allocation tiers (less the 30% reduction), but change the goalposts of how that is achieved, based on updated usage data across the JUP ecosystem. For example, if previously you had to have done $1m in volume to get the top tier airdrop, maybe thatâs $10m, or $20m this time? Maybe the team also look to add in multipliers based on other components of JUP ecosystem interaction which arenât just volume related too - there has been some great discussion on this across the forum already. That way, loyal, engaged and real users of the protocol are rewarded, not airdrop farmers.
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Thank you @Merlin-M-Ostermann!
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Thanks @gogeta! Appreciate your reply.
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Thanks @Joy888 Iâm glad you could appreciate it!
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Thank you very much for your compliments @WalterZan!
Iâm glad to hear that you found it so helpful!
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Thank you @Rajaphilose! Iâm glad you found it easy to understand! Youâre welcome (:
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The airdrop is not meant to ââjust going to be 700m tokens divided by 15m walletsââ as you say, but rather an adjusted volume-based tiered approach for the most part. Users who have engaged more and achieved higher trading volume, receive a greater airdrop allocation. There also remains space for a 1% of the airdrop community contributors allocation of 70 Million JUP.
- All Jupiter users: 140M JUP (after 30% burn) / 15,247,000 users = 9 JUP per user
- 9 JUP per user is 22X less per user than the 200 JUP of previous round
- $1M+ volume tier: 140M JUP (after 30% burn) / 36,166 users = 3,871 JUP per user
- 3,871 JUP per user is 26X less per user than the 100,000 JUP of previous round
- $100K - $1M tier: 140M JUP (after 30% burn) / 182,332 users = 767 JUP per user
- 767 JUP per user is 26X less per user than the 20,000 JUP of previous round
- $10K - $100K tier: 105M JUP (after 30% burn) / 664,448 users = 158 JUP per user
- 158 JUP per user is 19X less per user than the 3,000 JUP of previous round
- $1K - $10K tier: 105M JUP (after 30% burn) / 1,419,121 users = 74 JUP per user
- 74 JUP per user is 13X less per user than the 1,000 JUP of previous round
- Community contributors: 70M JUP (after 30% burn) = distributed at teams discretion
The total would come to be: 140M + 140M + 140M + 105M + 105M + 70M = 700M JUP.
In regards to further criteria speculation you propose, I do think there is a place for that. It would be possible and beneficial to introduce an actual JUP bonus for having traded JUP, JLP and/or having used DCA, Perps, Staking/Voting. It is important to see it as a bonus and addition to the main allocations based on adjusted volume-tiers.
The tokens would have to come from somewhere though. For example by reducing the 70M community contributors allocation (which Iâm sure would be highly unpopular on this forum).
Or alternatively the tokens could come from the 140M general non-tiered allocation. By reducing the general allocation by 50%, which is 70M, this amount could be used for rewarding users with bonus allocations if they traded JUP, JLP and/or having used DCA, Perps, Staking/Voting.
The âgenericâ allocation of 9 JUP per general user wouldnât be affected much by the deduction, as long as deduplication is applied, or a minimum volume requirement of for example $100 is implemented, effectively creating a $100+ tier.
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Awesome but base on my view I think it will be too diluted to reward almost 15million users without proper filter they can actually make use of how many products uses like DCA, Perpetual, Limit order and ape.pro,lock, if a user uses at least three of this different products should be reward. If we mainly consider base on volume uses on swap it will be boring and whale will eventually went away with everything. They can make some special criteria like people voted on every vote or missed a vote, people who receive poap directly from the team at least have 5 poap, how long you stake amd how solid your contribution is towards development of jupiverse through twitter, discord, Reddit and Forum,⌠Member of working group and more contributions from Catdet and cat of culture.
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This is the best post Iâve read so far on the key risks surrounding the second Jupuary, highlighted through various DAO debates. The analysis, grounded purely in factual data, provides valuable insights. If approached with an open mind, it leaves little room for arguments related to dilution from the airdrop. Excellent work, @JUPWhale â thank you for sharing these insights. It would be beneficial for everyone in the DAO to refer others to these posts when similar concerns arise.
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I understand the concern and have written and added an addition to the end of my post based on the feedback of several community community members like yourself.
.
Addition on 27. Oct 2024 at 6PM EST
There have been several community members who commented suggesting an allocation, multiplier or bonus for users who have traded JUP, JLP, JupSOL and/or having used new Jupiter features like DCA, Perps, DAO Staking/Voting.
Assuming that itâs feasible and possible for the team to retrieve this data, I believe it would be beneficial to introduce a JUP bonus or allocation for users who traded JUP, JLP, JupSOL and/or having used new Jupiter features like DCA, Perps, DAO Staking/Voting. Itâs a good idea which seems broadly supported by the community.
The tokens would have to come from somewhere though. The tokens could come from the 140M general non-tiered allocation. By reducing the general allocation by 50%, which is 70M, this amount could be used for rewarding users with bonus allocations if they traded JUP, JLP and/or having used DCA, Perps, Staking/Voting.
.
Applying a volume-based spam filter
The âgenericâ allocation per general user wouldnât be affected much by the deduction, as long as a minimum volume requirement of $100 is implemented. In fact, the allocation per general user with $100+ volume would be even higher.
Several community members have noted the importance of implementing measures against low quality spam users / bots and airdrop farmers. Applying a minimum volume requirement of $100 would effectively weed out around ~ 11.3 Million low quality spam users / bots and airdrop farmers.
In this adjusted proposal only a core user base of ~ 3.9 Million Jupiter users would receive an allocation, instead of the earlier mentioned total wallet count of ~ 15.25 Million. It would increase the allocation to legitimate users from 9 JUP to 18 JUP per user, despite using only 70M JUP instead of 140M JUP as the âall usersâ allocation.
.
The new airdrop distribution proposal would look like this:
- $1M+ volume tier: 140M JUP / 36,166 users = 3,871 JUP per user
- $100K - $1M tier: 140M JUP / 182,332 users = 767 JUP per user
- $10K - $100K tier: 105M JUP / 664,448 users = 158 JUP per user
- $1K - $10K tier: 105M JUP / 1,419,121 users = 74 JUP per user
- All Jupiter usersš: 70M JUP / 3,885,443 users = 18 JUP per user
- Community contributors: 70M JUP = distributed at teams discretion
- New Feature Users²: 70M JUP: / est. 1,000,000 users³ = 70 JUP per user
Total airdrop: 70M + 140M + 140M + 105M + 105M + 70M + 70M = 700M JUP.
š $100 minimum volume requirement used to reduce allocation to spam wallets.
² Any user who traded JUP, JLP, JupSOL and/or who used new Jupiter features like DCA, Perps, DAO Staking/Voting
Âł The exact amount of âNew Feature Usersâ is unknown, but considering at least 800,000 JUP holders and over 600,000 JUP DAO stakers / voters, I estimate it to be at least 1 Million users.
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@D3vpurity I have added an addition to the proposal at the end of my post, which takes your feedback into consideration. Applying a minimum volume requirement of $100 would effectively weed out around ~ 11.3 Million low quality spam users / bots and airdrop farmers.
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Wow thank you very much for this feedback! I really appreciate it (: I have just added an addition at the end of my post, which you may find helpful as well.
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Thanks for letting me know. Will take a look. Incredible analysis once moređđż
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I Think we should re-approach the Original Tier 1 User base (Which when formed was referred to as "Tier 5 for the Top 20,000 O.G wallets.- Clearly I think Tier 1 Sounds Better to avoid confusion.)
If Iâm correct we need to Fix the number from original Top Tier 1 wallets in this post to 20k as I believe 2k is the TYPO.
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[quote=âJUPWhale, post:1, topic:26133â]
** Any user who traded on Jupiter would get a JUP airdrop worth $9 (instead of $200)*
** A user who traded $1,000 - $10,000 would receive a JUP airdrop worth $74 (instead of $1,000)*
** A user who traded $10,000 - $100,000 would receive a JUP airdrop worth $158 (instead of $3,000)*
** A user who traded $100,000 - $1,000,000 would receive a JUP airdrop worth $767 (instead of $20,000*
** A user who traded $1,000,000+ would receive a JUP airdrop worth $3,871 (instead of $100,000)*
[/quote]
Ouch is what comes to mind first -
My swap volume first Jupuary of $16Million Plus & believe my Allocation was well deserved, Albeit I admit VERY Very generous.
This or the 2nd Jupuary I will have a swap volume that would Rival or be close to the same as the first Jupuary⌠**As I see it the most dedicated and productive long term users are getting hit the hardest with a 26x DECREASE. ( due to the numbers across the board I understand that there will be some âcutting of Fat off the Steakâ )
Now, The first Jup I did 16X REQUISITE FOR #1 TOP TIER STATUS.
2nd Jupuary I will be about 6-10x (probably Much More).
The issue I see here is between the 2 Jupuary My Volume will put me approx. 16-26X The required Volume to Obliterate #1 Top Tier O.G Statuses
albeit if no changes are made that is a 26X Drop when in fact I overshot the volume threshold by (16x the 1st JUP & 8-16X on the 2nd Jup)
I understand we all have Good ideas and techniques that 'support" all users at times better, and of Course Iâm sure no one is Exempt from being slightly
or - More so- Biased. We shall Do our Best.
Last note, The Perpetuals are a huge Revenue generator, I know this first hand due to the fact I alone Opened Many Many positions well Over a total of $100,000 - Maybe this could help all users / tiers to some degree who may or may not have Invested heavily in these new product lines at JUP?
Thank you all for taking the time to read through all this, I do really appreciate EVERYONES comments and opinions here. It is one of few places we can Truly Build a better JUP 4 ALL (J4J, J4A, PPP, ILY )
God Bless.
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Also an Issue I see is one where as a #1 TOP TIER OG with 16 Million in volume for the first few years of JUP I had no incentive to Use the product to such an extent, What I mean by this is no one had proir knowledge or incentive to use high volumes of the swap feature. the fact that as The second Jupuary rolls around Many People realized that they would be rewarded by Higher volume. I have no Issue with this fact, But I do have an issue with the fact I created 16x The top tier allocation requirement for the 1st JUP with No PRIOR KNOWLEDGE OR INKLING OF THE AIRDROP POSSIBILITY AT ALL.
Users who make the Same or better requirement as I did a #1Top Tier status (or any tier for that matter that they hit the requirement again) Should be seen as True Commitment and loyalty as Clearly after the first Jupuary, Everyone Good & Bad intentions alike most likely aimed for higher Swap or program usage.
A simple Proposal to remedy this Might go along the lines of "Users who repeat the volume or Tier Status of thier first Jupuary (Should) be considered a bonus multiplier or bonus reward for remaining a Loyal user when the Second Time Jupuary Rolls. There was clearly Motive for higher volumes Due to the fact & knowledge gained from the first JUP
What message are we sending to New users who are thinking of Long term Loyalty towards Jup & J4J if we downgrade the most senior O.Gâs and Loyal Users when we downgrade them 26x
Just my 2 cents Thank you for the Time to Read and think this over.
J4J - PPP - LOYALTY
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Good morning and thank you for your reply!
There have been several posts on this forum and on Discord expressing this concern. The main reason for the 30% JUP token supply burn was to do something in reponse to this concern, so although it might not be based on facts, it has still been a topic in the community which especially was discussed in recent months.
I do agree with your statement: ââalso this didnât really happen last time - JUPâs price has been very stable (which is a very promising sign) for almost the whole yearââ, but it doesnât mean that itâs not something people are concerned about.
The tier youâre mentioning is the $1,000,000+ volume tier. This is a very high volume tier with only 36,166 users at the moment. This tier isnât a target of airdrop farmers due to the significant costs and risk involved in trading such level of volume. The limited user count of 36,166 clearly testifies of this fact.
Mitigating the risk of airdrop farming is more important at the sub $100 and sub $1000 volume level. Although there are 15,247,000 wallets which interacted with Jupiter, only 3,885,443 users produced over $100+ trading volume.
Applying a minimum volume requirement of $100+ would make ~ 3.9M users (source) instead of 15.25M wallets. This effectively weeds out around ~ 11.3 Million low quality spam users / bots and airdrop farmers.
Itâs logical of you to think about this as an option, and I have definitely thought about it. When looking more into the idea you discover that it doesnât make much sense considering the radically changed user base and landscape.
In the previous round there was a total of ~ 955,000 users with just ~ 150,000 users in the $1,000 - $10,000 tier, 50,000 users in the $10,000 - $100,000 tier, 10,000 users in the $100,000 - $1M tier and just 2,000 users in the $1M+ tier.
Now we have 15.247.000 total wallets of which a total of 2,302,067 users are in the previously mentioned volume tiers. What youâre proposing would only reward the 1% of users who did ~ $100K - $20M+ volume, leaving out nearly ~ 99% of all users and ~ 90% of significant volume users from receiving the JUP airdrop.
Using the same rewards as in round 1 would only reward whales and power users as the 1% of users in the tiers of top 2000 users and the following 10,000 users, 50,000 users and 150,000 users. According to our script (source), it would require more than $100,000+ in trading volume to make the cut of the top 212,000 users, which includes the lowest adjusted volume-based tier which used to require just $1,000+. One would need more than $23 Million+ USD of trading volume to reach the highest tier of the top 2000 users.
This idea, although good to have thought about, ends up being bad for the community. It would only reward the top 1% with an airdrop, leaving out the remaining 99% of users.
Based on certain feedback of yourself and several other community members Iâve added an Addition at the end of my post on 27. Oct 2024 at 6PM EST.
The addition entails a JUP bonus or allocation for users who traded JUP, JLP, JupSOL and/or having used new Jupiter features like DCA, Perps, DAO Staking/Voting.
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