After watching the first JUP distribution & seeing so many entities successfully sybil the 200 JUP reward on hundreds or even thousands of wallets I wanted to look to see what methods will be used by similar actors for Jupuary#2.
It’s clear from the writings of weremeow that DAO contributors, ergo voters will play a significant role in the 2nd distribution of Jupuary. It has already been stated that discussion of criteria for the 2nd airdrop will happen after the snapshot. I’m very excited for these discussions, but in the mean time its been fun to analyse JUP staking data to see what is happening and when!
For context, I recently submitted a sybil report for Layerzero and it was successful, data analysis is something that I have only recently started & have enjoyed it so much that in my spare time I want to try and contribute to JUP to combat the massive industrial sybil operations.
On to JUP stakers & the shenanigans that have been going on over the past few weeks. A couple of weeks ago I wanted to work out what the median JUP stake was, finding a comprehensive dashboard on JUP staking analytics proved to be difficult. But nevertheless I found some flipside dashboards that I could fork to create data sets that helped analyse JUP staking distributions.
On the 27/6/2024 Flipside spat out this distribution data, it has grouped stakes into different sets. The sets show the amount of stakes that are less than 0.1, 1, 10, 100, 1k, 10k, 100k, 1m & above 1m. The distribution is interesting and I’ll be focusing on the 0.1 or less stakes. I’ve highlighted in green that amount of stakers which as of 27/6 stood at 29157.
Fast forward to today, 9/7/2024, I decided to run these numbers again out of idle curiosity. Something very obvious has occurred.
Most stakes reduced, and this makes sense due to context. ASR were distributed at the weekend and logical analysis suggests that maybe some people were unhappy with their rewards or just wanted to unstake and realise some profits from their staking balances. I have highlighted in green the 0.1 grouping which stand now at 36302.
Within the span of 12 days the amount of wallets staking less than 0.1 jumped from 29157 to 36302 that’s a 7145 increase. It goes without question these wallets are an attempt to sybil the upcoming JUPUARY#2.
Combating this obvious sybil can be done with numerous ways, I think the most simple way is just to exclude all wallets staking 1 JUP or less from JUPUARY#2. I think everyone on this forum should be aware early on which ways sybils are attempting to game the best protocol and DAO in crypto currently.
EDIT2:
So The_Lacrymator commented and suggested that removing stake could potentially leave dust in wallets. I don’t think this is the case, if you remove your entire stake your balance recudes to 0. This has been confirmed by devs in JUP discord.
Furthermore, I inputted the flipside data into a spreadsheet to the net increases/decreases of the 12 day period & it looks as if the categories outside of <0.1 have a net decrease of -123 stakers.
We can see that the staking addresses increase from 505,762 to 513,483 and the biggest category increase is from the <0.1 stake, interestingly the <10 stake decreases the most as I am sure most users were unhappy with their ASR rewards.
I think this further analysis does show that its probably sybil addresses hoping for a 200 JUP airdrop for 1 proposal vote similar to the 1 tx from 200 JUP on the previous airdrop.
