Reasons why we should not have another Jupuary (in numbers)

Jupiter DAO $JUP
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Some quick math regarding Jupurary. Something may be off as I wrote this quickly. You will still get the idea.

Circulating supply before Jupurary = 1 350 M
Jupurary = 700 M
JUP price before Jupurary $1 (let’s make it this just to keep it simple)

→ Demand stays the same after Jupurary

Circulating supply after Jupurary = 2 000M (I round numbers again)
JUP price after Jupurary = 1 350 M / 2 000 M = $0,675

→ the drop is 32% in JUP price

Your 1000 $JUP bag worth before Jupurary = $1000
Your 1000 $JUP bag worth after Jupurary = $675

→ In order to keep the USD value the same, you would need to get 481 JUP from Jupurary ( $675 + (481 * $0,675)) = $675 + $325 = $1000

So for every 1 JUP you hold, you should get 0,48 JUP from Jupurary to keep your bags the same dollar value.

1000 JUP bag would need 480 JUP from airdrop
5000 JUP bag would need 2400 JUP from airdrop, and so on…

We don’t know the terms of Jupurary and the demand and supply doesn’t work exactly the way I sampled here, but it is 100% certain that the value of JUP will drop due to excess sell pressure after Jupurary. At least relative to the market performance ( so at least JUP doesn’t perform as well as it would with no Jupurary ).

Another thing is that whales do know this and they also know that relatively speaking they always get smaller ROI than smaller fish. ASR is good because it rewards everyone with the same ROI and doesn’t cause as much sell pressure compared to Jupurary. And if whales are not happy with the voting result, they will most likely start exiting their positions before Jupurary takes place, which causes even more significant sell pressure.

On top of all this, as the Jupurary would increase the circulating supply, it would also increase the amount of staked JUP, which would decrease the ASR ROI. ASR will remain 50M with or without Jupurary. So another reason for whales (and who ever understands basic math) to jump off from JUP.

I can already sense that lots of people want Jupurary because they want more JUP while not understanding that such supply shock would actually get them less. Although we don’t know the structure or terms of the potential 2025 Jupurary, the most benefits goes for those who are NOT JUP holders. Simply because they don’t have bags which would lose value.

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The remaining jup that is not in circulation where did you want it to go or allocated too?
For the instant dump I think das where the liquidity depth comes in.

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Beautiful take. Data doesn’t lie and the Jupuary structure is not aligned with the stakers for PPP to be possible here.

Definitely for canceling Jupuary.

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Token prices always rising and falling.
Irrespective of jupuary, jup price can fall to your estimates (happened recently), or rise beyond expectations.

Current market cap is $1 billion (1.4b jup circulating)
At jupuary, mcap would be ~$2 billion (2b jup circulating).
Not significant difference, I’m sure you’ll agree.

Looking at the scale of the protocol, the dedication of the team, a most passionate community, consistent huge developmental shippings,
Its easy to believe much higher jup prices will happen eventually at some point, Irrespective of any jupuary dilutions.

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Let’s do a quick math. There will always be buyers and sellers. Yes, JUP will face selling pressure, that’s true. But if your math is correct, there would be zero buyers, which isn’t the case. So let’s fix that quickly: there will always be buyers. Let’s assume a price shock of approximately 15%. (There will be around 20% unclaimed JUP.)
If we take into account the unclaimed JUPs and the buyers, I believe this scenario is possible. Moreover, if part of the airdrop is distributed to DAO members, fewer tokens will be sold. So, the price will only drop from $1 to $0.85. Currently, if you buy JUP and participate in all the votes during ASR3, your holdings will increase by 18%. Even if you don’t participate and buy JUP in December, using your math, the price of 1,000 JUPs will drop to $850, and I will need $150. So even if you buy 0.176 JUP per JUP you hold, that will be enough, which is a 17% rate. I think you’ll receive more than this in the form of an airdrop.

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In fact, only those who win with this system are those who have at least 100 Jup.

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Remember that there will be a 33% supply reduction soon, cancelling out much of this analysis.

Ultimately, if you are a long-term believer in Jup, I think you should be encouraging further distribution of Jup to users (new and old, large and small) to continue building this great community. PPP isn’t just a slogan, it can be Jup’s guiding philosophy - let’s prove that we can rise above short-term price analysis and believe in a long-term mission, to the benefit of all holders!!

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Burning 30% from the total supply doesn’t affect OP’s math at all. Total possible supply versus supply in circulation.

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  1. Jupurary itself does not bring more buying pressure, it creates sell pressure.
  2. ASR is not ment to compensate upcoming jupuraries and is not related, it is there to incentivice and reward voting stakers who agree to lock their capital for 30 days. Without rewards the participation in voting would be very low.
  3. It is correct that the math provided by me is not exact and I also believe the price impact won’t be as big as 30% because there are also potential upsides on the jupurary. It’s really impossible to accurately estimate the impact of Jupurary as there are many variables. However I’m leaning towards Jupurary being net negative overall for JUP holders for the reasons mentioned. It is not only the potential “instadump” which causes the selling pressure, it is also a fear of it happening. If Satoshi wakes up now and moves his 1M BTC to another wallet, the market would immediately react causing BTC price to go down, that’s how it works. If Satoshi would end up selling, it would create another wave of selling pressure. And BTC has the deepest liquidity, the biggest community and adoption. Also 1M BTC from the circulating 20M is just 5%.
  4. Roughly 28% of the circulating JUP is being staked. Part of the Jupurary goes to staking also causing ASR ROI to come down as mentioned.
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Also as mentioned here already, the 30% burn goes from uncirculating supply. That does not have effect on the calculations really.

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I appreciate your breakdown (as probably most of us do) of the impact of another potential Jupuary on the total circulating supply, PA, demand, selling pressure and so on. While there’s merit to considering the effect on price, I believe the analysis might be a bit too focused on the short-term selling pressure?..It’s like you’re not taking into account the demand part at all…we will never see a scenario with a shocking seeling pressure and still yet the same demand. Both parts will be dynamic as always, and we can’t and shouldn’t suppose that one of those parts will be exactly the same, cause in this way the maths will be wrong right from the start.

Anywayz, here’s my personal and a little different perspective:

  • Market Volatility vs. Jupurary: We’ve already seen significant price fluctuations this year, independent of airdrops. The end of July 45% drop wasn’t caused by unlocks or Jupurary, but by market fluctuations. During that period, many of us probably saw an opportunity and bought more JUP.
  • Jupuary’s Historical Performance: Following the first Jupurary, the price had at most a hiccup before going straight up to $1.20 ish. This suggests the community’s commitment and the project’s underlying strength.
  • Long-Term Growth: The upcoming 30% JUP burn hasn’t even begun, which will further decrease supply and potentially counteract any heavy price dips.

Looking Forward:

Instead of fearing a short-term price drop, perhaps we can focus on the potential benefits of Jupurary:

  • Increased User Base: A new airdrop could attract new users to the Jupiter ecosystem, boosting long-term demand and foster the PPP attitude, cause we want to grow the pie together and share it with the last comers too right?
  • Community Engagement: Jupurary can be a way to reward existing users and incentivize further participation in the platform.

My personal POV:

Anywayz, the decision on Jupuary should be based on a comprehensive analysis considering both short-term and long-term impacts. Perhaps a middle ground can be found, with a Jupuary structure that minimizes price volatility while still offering value to the community. Pretty sure the team will find that middle ground. Probably a good idea would be to give options to claim entire drop but with a cut (that cut should be sent to the community wallet) or lock it for a vesting period of time to be able to receive it entirely (like cloud and debridge did).

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I’ll just answer short. It is correct, these are the reasons why we should not have another Jupurary. There are also reasons why we should have it. This thread looks only one side of the equation and I was expecting and waiting others to highlight the other side, just like you did. And more posts and thoughts why we should have Jupurary are welcome. Then we can all see both sides and make decision if the positives outweigh the negatives.

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So you recive bag in 1st airdrop and now you ask to not do airdrop for people who not recive any airdrop but using daily Jupiter maybe even more then you.

I not suporting this at all.

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AI Generated response not even reading this.

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People who received the first airdrop should be reduced or excluded in the second airdrop

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This article mainly focus on the price of Jup token but Jupuary is more than this. Circulation and reaching out to more users is important for the long term success of a project

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I didn’t receive anything in the 1st airdrop and I don’t expect to receive anything from the potential future airdrops either. I don’t trade, be active in the Jupiverse, watch planetary calls or make posts / likes here in the hopes of receiving anything and I feel like that’s a big difference between me and many others.

Meow said that people should expect nothing, use Jupiter if there is a need for you to use it. If you think about receiving something by doing it, go elsewhere.

That’s how it should be. People expect money from doing anything nowadays.

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Many didn’t , many did. Lets hope more users from different regions join Jupiter Universe (if Jupuary happens)

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Definitely the most important part is “Dont expect anything”. The subject was different than this but misunderstandings can happen. I agree that there is no use of doing something and expecting something in return . My Point is that jupuary is not all about airdrop , it is something that also helps reaching out more people which is important goal for a project

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I understand. :+1: I was replying to @Kiwi6677 's message:

"So you recive bag in 1st airdrop and now you ask to not do airdrop for people who not recive any airdrop but using daily Jupiter maybe even more then you.

I not suporting this at all."

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