45% APY is not the real number because the amount of staked JUP doesn’t remain the same for the whole year. I’ve written a post about ASR, which gives a more realistic view what the actual reward can look like.
Another thing to note is that to achieve this 20-25% APY, you have to keep your JUP locked for the whole year, keep all the ASR you receive locked for the whole year and not miss a single vote for the whole year. Unstaking some or missing a vote would considerably decrease the APY, especially if this would happen early in the year.
The real APY is closer to 20-25% for the whole year of 2025.