I find this topic pretty interesting.
Although my guess would be that (AT LEAST) 40% of the airdropped amount would be claimed instantly with the penalty of -75%, and considering that we have grown the staked JUP amount linearly since the start of the DAO, we would have a large inflow instantly into the DAO (both old and new members of DAO (only if the team proposes in the vote that whole allocation could be staked in 1:1 ratio for JUP:voting power like we have used to have from the start)).
Considering that ASR is in tendency to fall (you can look up @miuq post here where he explained in detail how the ASR has been looking since the first batch released back in summer) with possibility of rewards getting even lower if larger amount of the Jupuary gets staked, I would completely align with accepting the proposal where (almost) every JUP taken from users at the airdrop would be re-directed back into ASR, as it would most definitely bring more interest and appeal to the DAO both for existing and future users.